A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
